In crypto, almost everything revolves around Bitcoin. Accordingly, we need to determine the overall trend for Bitcoin and then make decisions regarding the selection of specific coins. Additionally, the crypto market is highly manipulated, with a group of people extracting liquidity from this asset and the overall crypto market for years, impacting retail investors, funds, and others. The algorithms and methods used in 2018, 2020, and 2023 are essentially the same. A visually appealing chart is created, accompanied by strong informational noise involving numerous individuals, media outlets, etc. Someone sells during the hype, then everything crashes again. And so on. Through simple manipulations, 90% of retail investors consistently end up in the negative in the long run, and these funds flow into other hands.
Gradually, the BTC resource is depleting, as I’ve mentioned before. Almost everyone who could be attracted to the crypto audience has already invested in Bitcoin. Even grandmothers who saw ETF advertisements in the metro and bought Bitcoin through ETFs. If in 2015-2017-2019 it could confidently be said that the resource of this instrument was still very large due to the lack of such serious advertising campaigns as we see in recent growth cycles, now it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract people to BTC.
However, I think this is not yet a fully exhausted tool.
Naturally, everyone wants to buy crypto at the bottom. If in September, in the fall, we actively accumulated and traded altcoins, being confident that this cycle would not end abruptly, at least until the ETF was approved and as long as it was actively used by everyone, even the head of the Federal Reserve and BlackRock for BTC promotion. Now, as I mentioned earlier, the situation is not entirely clear. I believe we are definitely not at the bottom now (more likely the opposite) to start accumulating coins for a year-long hold.
Therefore, locally, when something interesting appears (like Manta, for example, which I recently bought), I will give you signals.
However, I think it’s still too early to accumulate crypto for this category, given the printing press and interest rate reduction. The market is overheated, especially against the backdrop of one of the most massive PR campaigns for BTC and crypto in general that we’ve seen since mid-summer. (But it didn’t work as strongly as during COVID when everyone stayed at home with their gadgets and crypto was a novelty for many.)