The hype around Manta is significant, so I decided to break down why some influencers suggest staking it. It seems to me that this is already a slight departure from reality. As I understood, the main two arguments are as follows:
- This is a new ecosystem with many projects planning to launch in the coming months.
- MC $560M and FDV $2.2B look cheap compared to $TIA with a $2.7B MC.
The absurdity of these two arguments is that Manta is somehow compared to Celestia or other Data Availability projects. In those cases, projects drop their tokens to stakers to reward supporters of those networks. The security of Celestia depends on TIA stakers, and therefore, the security of projects built on it. Therefore, drops by stakers seem quite logical and justified.
In the case of Manta, it is a token on L1 on Polkadot and L2 on Ethereum. We currently have no precedents for drops for L1 stakers on Polkadot or L2 stakers on Ethereum (and I work directly with patterns that have already occurred). The reasons why this might happen soon, and why it will happen specifically with Manta, I honestly don’t see. (And even if it does happen, it’s unlikely to be serious projects that can provide significant returns—like Celestia, DYM, or AltLayer.)
Well, and based on this, evaluating MANTA relative to TIA is also inappropriate. It can be compared to Metis, which has been on the market for a long time, has some ecosystem of applications, and has an evaluation of only $362m. While the empty Manta is valued at $590m. Such a difference is understandable, as Manta has just entered the market and has the support of Binance, but it clearly does not play into the hands of holders. The project has no clear upside like Blur, Arb, or SUI, but it has a clear downside to evaluations like Metis or other unnecessary L2s.
There is nothing to say about the fundamentals of Manta itself: it’s another L2 that nicely and timely jumped on the most hype trends—borrowed open technologies from zkSync, integrated Celestia DA, and attached itself to the Blast hype. The team is relatively good at marketing, but that doesn’t mean it can attract developers and users. The project objectively is not on par with zkSync. Considering the market conditions, it may show some growth, but right now there are much more interesting assets with clearer prospects. And even taking Ethereum seems calmer.