Drawdowns in the previous cycle for BTC frequently exceeded 40%, whereas in this cycle we’ve observed a maximum of 20%+ drawdowns.
Following the ETF launch, there were numerous attempts at front-running bad news, and had it not been for significant demand for spot BTC – we likely would have crashed. Nonetheless, the spot ETF found substantial demand – since then, the net inflow into BTC ETFs amounted to $4.6B.
This inflow is also highly reflexive – something that I think is still underappreciated by the markets. BTC, after all, is a Veblen good – simplifying its purchase will create an effective feedback loop at the start.
As long as the magic seven American companies (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet Inc. (Google), Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla) continue to grow confidently, BTC is likely to continue attracting inflows – liquidity on BTC is also quite low, which should lead to a significant increase in spot price.
When will altcoin holders see an alt season? When long-term BTC holders start taking profits and injecting them into alts. OR, when retail users start massively returning/entering the market.
The trigger for retail and for spot BTC holders will likely be reaching $60K – then the rotation will begin. Break the ATH – attention will be drawn to the cryptocurrency markets.
Currently, there’s active attention to narrative stories. Liquidity is shifting from project to project.
Addition by DeFiScanCheck: hsaka is shilling parallel EVM => $SEI +66% in a couple of weeks, Sam Altman wants to attract $7T for building AI chip factories? $AI +60%, TAO > $700 ATH, WLD > $3.8 as a proxy to Sam.
It’s important to understand where liquidity will go next. WHAT STORY/NARRATIVE YOUR ALTS MIGHT SPIN.
For old alt owners: take a close look at your bags and ask – who are the next buyers, why they would buy your bags. What niche does your project occupy?
Judging by the cycles, if mag7 continues to grow, especially with the release of the new product SORA from Open AI, I think NVDA will continue to trade very well – this will have a positive impact on BTC liquidity.
It’s quite possible that BTC could break its ATH before the halving.
Why did so many crypto OG Twitter users get their forecasts wrong? Many OGs were used to operating in a much more PvP environment, where the flow of liquidity was much more important with much less money in the ecosystem.
The introduction of the spot BTC ETF along with incoming flows into crypto changed this. It created a PvE environment (expansion time as in 2021).
Advice from Degentrading: don’t use high leverage, don’t burn out on futures, try buying dips, be in the market.”