The financial landscape is always evolving, and recent movements in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet have caught the attention of investors and analysts alike. Here’s a summary of the latest developments and market expectations:
- The Fed’s balance sheet reduction by $14 billion in just one week signals a tightening of monetary policy.
- Market anticipates Fed rate movements as follows:
- March 20th: Hold.
- May 1st: Hold.
- June 12th: 25 basis points cut.
- July 31st: Hold.
- September 18th: 25 basis points cut.
- November 7th: 25 basis points cut.
- December 18th: Hold.
US Shutdown Postponed
The US Congress has approved temporary funding to prevent a government shutdown, extending department operations until March 8th and 22nd, respectively. This move highlights the ongoing negotiations and the importance of maintaining government operations uninterrupted.
Telegram’s Stake in TON Limited to 10%
Pavel Durov announced that Telegram would limit its stake in TON to 10% of the supply. Furthermore, he revealed that major investors (investing over $1 million) could purchase TON at a price below market value, signaling potential growth and investor confidence in the project.
Market Perspectives
- PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, suggests that the accumulation phase has ended, and a bull market has begun. Historical patterns hint at ~10 months of extreme price jumps with multiple 30% dumps. Enjoy the ride!
- BTC experienced a 43.55% increase in February, marking its 6th consecutive green month and setting a new record with a monthly candle increase of +$19,840.
- Bitwise’s CIO highlights the strong demand for Bitcoin, far exceeding supply.
- Bloomberg analysts view Bitcoin as becoming an alternative currency on a global scale, potentially entering a “gamma squeeze” where dealers are forced to buy more BTC due to options market risks.
- Vanguard Group’s CEO plans to step down by the end of the year, leading to speculation that the financial giant may lift the ban on Bitcoin ETFs.
- Wells Fargo and Merrill (owned by Bank of America) have started offering a spot Bitcoin ETF to their clients, indicating growing institutional acceptance.
Potential Corrections Ahead?
- CryptoQuant warns of an increasing probability of a BTC correction.
- Michael Novogratz anticipates a BTC correction to $50k-$55k before reaching a new all-time high.
- JPMorgan expects a BTC correction to $42k post-halving, suggesting investors remain vigilant.
These developments and predictions paint a dynamic picture of the cryptocurrency market, with significant potential for both gains and corrections. As always, staying informed and prepared for volatility is key in navigating the crypto landscape.